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Thursday, December 03, 2009


Elections fast approaching

As I have said in my previous analysis, I see little chance of a lot changing in the election which will happen in just 47 hours.

At best the DPP will hold onto their current 3 seats and pick up Yilan, which is dead even by gangster estimates; the KMT is scrambling to hold onto Hualien and hoping that one of those splittist elements doesn't get elected, but faces only factional dangers but few challenges from the DPP.

Ninty eight people have been taken into custody in connection to vote buying during the campaign. Over 3,500 cases of vote buying related activities were reported, with investigators taking up over 2,200 of them.

I'll try to have an analysis here not only of the higher level, more prominent election results, but also the things going on at the township level.



At 12:11 AM, Blogger Thomas said...

I am very concerned by all of this talk about a referendum on Ma. The problem is that it is so hard for any political party to make inroads when it comes to local elections. The KMT can set some ridiculously low threshold in order to declare a victory. They only have to win in Ilan, a result that is probable based on how close the election is and how much effort the KMT is putting into getting votes there at the moment, and we will hear about how much Taiwanese still support Emperor Ma. This whole thing is making me sick.

At 8:06 AM, Blogger Richard said...

Your post seems to set a different tone on this upcoming elections than what I had previously thought. For the most part, I thought news outlets are expecting sort of a DPP "win" for this election. Or is this upbeat attitude for the DPP more on the relative side (if compared to last year when the KMT had relatively little damage done to their image). I suppose if I recall correctly, a lot of the KMT being portrayed as the underdog in this one is the KMT themselves saying that they are underdogs at this moment (likely to garner those votes that may have just stayed at home). Then again, if the DPP hold onto their seats at the very least, I guess it could be seen as a "win" if their expectations were low already.


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