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Monday, November 16, 2009


DPP Chairwoman Tsai more popular than President Ma?

Taiwan News is first out of the gate with this news:

A summary:

Satisfied with Tsai's performance - 35%
Satisfied with Ma's performance - 33%
Dissatisfied with Tsai's performance - 34%
Dissatisfied with Ma's performance - 31%

By Region:

  • Kaohsiung and Pingtung - 18% Satisfied with Ma and 44% dissatisfied
  • Central and Eastern Taiwan - Ma more popular (no figures given) 
  • North - Tsai and Ma running equal (no figures given)
  • Yunlin, Chiayi and Tainan - 40% Satisfied with Tsai
  • (The opposition leader rated ahead of Ma with independent voters, and received even a positive rating from 29 percent of Kuomintang supporters.)
Support by party:

Positive rating for KMT - 37%
Positive rating for DPP - 22%

The poll successfully interviewed 717 respondents by phone on November 10 and had a margin of error of 3.7 percent, the China Times said.

These mixed results from a blue-leaning media outlet seem generally positive for Tsai though tempered with caution since it appears that the DPP as a party has not raised its game in the public's eye as much as its leader.  Now if only the DPP could be as professional as Tsai and show some internal discipline ... (and pigs may fly?)

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At 10:50 AM, Blogger David said...

I actually read this as a disaster for the DPP (even considering it comes from a pro-KMT source). It shows that both the DPP and KMT only attract support from their core supporters, but the most Taiwanese who sit in the middle have rejected both parties. The DPP cannot win national level elections by merely mobilising its base.

At 5:53 PM, Blogger Ben Goren said...

I think Dave's take on the results is right and a warning for those who, including myself occasionally, who would read into polls what they wish rather than what may actually be the case. Good points very well made.

At 8:42 PM, Blogger Tim Maddog said...

David, Ben, remember that people in Taiwan -- especially pro-greens -- still suffer from a "martial law mentality" that causes them to fear protesting, signing petitions, or even answering poll questions candidly.

Pro-blue media saturation also makes people think that pro-green views are in the minority, and this also discourages people from expressing their true feelings.

Nevertheless, what David said about the DPP not being able to win "by merely mobilising its base" is correct. A lot of people need to be awakened in order to realize that the two major parties aren't "just the same" (as one of my in-laws said to me this past weekend). That's a huge obstacle to overcome, but I provided a barrage of examples of how they aren't "the same," and I hope I made a positive impression.

Tim Maddog


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