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Wednesday, December 02, 2009

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Beijing's Annexation Strategy

According to author and exiled Chinese law professor Yuan Hongbing, Beijing has made clear plans to achieve annexation of Taiwan via principally economic means. In an interview with Yuan, and a review of his new book, 'Taiwan Disaster', Wu Tsen-hsi of the Epoch Times lays out Yuan's take on Beijing's strategy as follows (alleged direct quotes of Chinese leaders in orange):

  • Chinese Prime MInister Wen Jiabao maintains that Taiwan will have to agree to integrate economically with the mainland if it expects to utilize the mainland for its economic development. Wen also stated that an agreement must be signed to ensure that the rules of economic integration are followed."Economic integration is by nature, economic unification. Taiwan benefits from it economically, and we [the CCP] fulfill our political goal by doing it," Wen said
  • Prime Minister Li Keqiang explained in depth that in order to break through the investment barrier erected by the government of Taiwan,a number of Taiwan’s merchants will have to be used as agents. They would, of course, be relatively well paid, and would manage the CCP's investments in Taiwan's banks, insurance companies, and other strategic economic entities. Li concluded by saying, "To manipulate Taiwan's stock market so it rises or falls according to our will that will take a lot of capital investment, but the expenditure is worthwhile, considering what we will gain politically."
  • The mainland would become the primary market for Taiwan's industrial and agricultural export products, accessing 90 percent of Taiwan's total agricultural product output for export in the shortest time possible; the mainland would become the primary source of Taiwan's strategic resources, including energy resources; and the regime would ensure that a target number of 500,000 mainland tourists visiting Taiwan each year (Poster's Note: 2009: 900,000) would be maintained up to 2012, assuring that the mainland remains the primary source of Taiwan's tourism.
  • Another key strategy of the regime is to erode Taiwan’s politico-economic factions from within. To accomplish this, the regime will focus on corrupting the Kuomintang (KMT) leaders and marginalizing the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP.) The CCP's economic strategy specifically targets the upper-classes of the Kuomintang (KMT), the sponsors of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and several million Taiwanese merchants. Taiwan Disaster mentions a confidential 2002 document forwarded from the Secretariat of the Central Committee of the CCP to the Provincial army level. The document stipulates that the CCP should protect any investments made by upper-class KMT members and other influential individuals, including those investments made directly in their names, or indirectly, in their friends' or relatives' names. The book quotes a 2008 document issued by China’s Central Government which states: “The [Chinese Communist] Party should take advantage of the Kuomintang’s return to power, and complete the reunification of Taiwan by 2012, before the Party’s 18th National Congress."
  • The regime has been betting on the KMT leaders for a long time, according to Yuan. During the eight years (2000-2008) when the KMT was not in control, the Chinese regime has been methodically binding the economic well being and dependency of the KMT leaders tightly to the communist regime by inviting them to open businesses in the mainland, according to Yuan. Suppressing, weakening, and corrupting the DPP is another integral part of the regime’s strategy to erode the country’s political framework. Yuan says the regime has been trying to deepen the rift within the DPP by manipulating the money laundering case of its former leader, President Chen Shui-bian.
  • The regime is fomenting social conflict and inspiring hatred toward the DPP. Yuan explains how economic means are to be used to control the sponsors of the DPP and disintegrate its standing in society.
  • The tactics used to disintegrate the DPP's social status also include buying fruit in large increments from Southern Taiwan to make Taiwan heavily dependent on mainland purchases, while at the same time serving to imply that Taiwan’s political stance toward the regime had changed. According to the book, this strategy was contrived by Hu Jintao, the General Secretary of the CCP. For the 'reunification'[sic] of Southern Taiwan, Jia Qinglin, the Chairman of the People's Political Consultative Conference, said in the enlarged meeting of the Political Bureau: "For those Taiwanese merchants who support our policies with Taiwan, we must meet their reasonable financial requirements, making them feel that the mainland is a haven for investments.For those merchants who clandestinely go against our policies, we must strengthen our monitoring and control mechanisms, and pursue financial retribution. When necessary, we can ruin them financially and make them lose everything they own."
Original Chinese article

So ... apparently economics is the key and ECFA the first major step toward the CCP realizing its goals. Yet the China Post reported on a survey by NTU that a clear majority of Taiwanese (in the survey) opposed ECFA:
Six out of 10 Taiwanese are against a major trade agreement with China that is being pushed aggressively by the island's government, a survey showed Friday. Out of more than 1,200 polled earlier this month, 59.7 percent opposed the planned pact, known as the economic cooperation framework agreement (ECFA), according to results released by National Taiwan University. Only 34.7 percent supported the agreement, which Taiwan's China-friendly government has said will bring both higher growth and more jobs. Just over 54 percent said they had no faith that President Ma Ying-jeou could protect the interests of the Taiwanese people when negotiating with Beijing on the deal.
Remember that the Premier has said that the best conditions for signing an ECFA will be when 60% of Taiwanese support it. Expect that to be forgotten as more polls show opinion swinging in exactly the opposite direction.

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