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Monday, November 16, 2009

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China or Bust Economic Model - Why its rationale is misleading

Here's the money quote from today's Taipei Times:

Business consultant Chien Yao-tang (簡耀堂) said the government may have overestimated the importance of the Chinese market.
“If you remember, in 2000 when Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp [SMIC] was founded in China, many people despaired, saying if the government didn’t lift the ban on wafer manufacturers moving to China, Taiwanese manufacturers would not be able to get a share of the Chinese market and would be left behind in the global market,”
“Ten years have passed, the Chinese IC market has been growing, but SMIC has not made a profit, except for one year, even with all the support it receives from the Chinese government.”
Worth remembering the SMIC was founded with significant help and investment from Taiwanese business people.  Another thing highlighted recently in the media is that the 'golden age' of TW and foreign investment in China may have been the mid to late 1990's.  India now holds more potential for growth in the next ten years and investors will be aware that their investment in India is less likely to be controlled by the Indian State or used so clearly to bolster the political and economic power of India at the expense of neighbouring countries sovereignty.

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