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Tuesday, March 13, 2007

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China Times Presidential Poll



The China Times has a new poll out with early predictions of the election. It has Ma up over Su or Hsieh by 20 points, 48-29, with 23% having no opinion, while Su/Hsieh beat Wang 38-32 with 30% having no opinion. The China Times organization also polled on Ma as an independent:

如果王金平代表國民黨、馬英九獨立參選,蘇貞昌或謝長廷代表民進黨出馬,受訪者的答案又有所不同,11.1%表示會支持王金平,42.5%表示支持馬英九,27.6%表示將會支持蘇貞昌或謝長廷,18.8%表示沒意見。

If Wang Jin-pyng represents the KMT, and Ma Ying-jeou participates as an independent, and Su or Hsieh represents the DPP, among those surveyed, 11.1% said they would support Wang, 42.5% said they'd support Ma, 27.6% said they'd support [DPP candidate], and 18.8% had no opinion.

The article went on to note that if Ma were convicted, those numbers are 13.5, 35.2, 31.1, and 20.2, respectively.

The survey was conducted by phone, probably in northern Taiwan, since I deem it unlikely the organization would spend all that money making long distance calls. Polls from Blue organizations are notorious for their wild inaccuracy, and these numbers should be read as indicative of the preferences of the China Times rather than as a valid representation of the electorate. Laughably, the paper claims it has a margin of error of 2.9%. Yes, and did you know that 63.8% of statistics are made up on the spot?



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4 Comments:

At 10:35 AM, Blogger Allan Leznikov said...

In the article that was posted on my site I heard that the current vice president was going to run and I was wondering if that's true? Since you are more educated in Taiwanese relations, do you have hope of a free Taiwan emerging anytime soon?

 
At 1:26 PM, Anonymous david on formosa said...

Putting the China Times political biases aside, the way the questions are structured cannot give an accurate result. Asking do you prefer A and B from party X or C from party Y doesn't really give a clear indication of whether people support A or B or how they would fare individually against C.

It also makes too many assumptions about who the presidential candidates will be. This is far from decided on either side.

 
At 6:03 PM, Blogger Robo said...

A Taiwanese friend of mine recently told me that he had a friend in college who worked for so and so politician. The politician had hired a polling agency for whatever reason. Long story short, days before the polling was even finished, the politician announced the findings, and it was reported on as truth.

Alledgedly, that is.

I'm not saying that's what the China Times is doing, so much as I'm wary of much all surveys I see here.

I'm curious if you guys have ever encountered instances like this.

 
At 9:04 PM, Blogger Tim Maddog said...

Robo, check out these links:
* Pan-blue media surveys about Taipei election all wrong (Pan-blue surveys have a 24% "margin of error"?)
* Pan-blue media surveys about Kaohsiung election all wrong (It's-more-than-just-almost as if these pan-blue papers had called Chinese Nationalist Party [KMT] headquarters and asked, "What numbers should we publish?")
* "Gallup Taiwan" isn't Gallup at all (Faked-up beyond any resemblance of reality!)

You probably won't be too surprised.

Tim Maddog

 

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