Iran and Taiwan
I don't want to compare too much here, as Iran and Taiwan are very different places, with distinct historical backgrounds, but what is happening there appears to confirm one of my worst fears.
We are now in an era where the concept of a "right to bear arm"s is effectively irrelevant; an uprising, even if it has the support of the majority of the people, is impossible to sustain without the assistance of the police and armed forces.
I am not arguing that the Iranian population is armed, because they are not; rather, I am reminding us all that if the government has tear gas and tanks, you're screwed, even when they don't have to use them. Iran's unarmed populations is already unable to affect change even with this strong popular uprising; a few AK-47s wouldn't make a difference versus the government's weaponry. Without the army, you're fucked. And with the army, you're probably also fucked, since they'll probably just take control instead of handing things over to a civilian government. [I haven't backed up this last statement with facts yet, but I suppose I should dig for the evidence that supports me.]
I am hopeful but pessimistic about the protesters' chance to affect change; I suspect any similar uprising in Taiwan would have the same moderate tendencies and the same useless result. And that reminds us that time is all the shorter. We must act while there is still a chance to affect change via the ballot box.